Look for the Smart Bets for You
However, using more samples will slow down the response. This will make it difficult for us to detect trend changes in our operations and identify if our systems are no longer effective. Remember that there are only three methods to make money in sports betting. And if we do not stick to the conditions of profitability of each of them it is impossible to obtain benefits.
This type of information is critical for bet188. As we discussed talking about the stake in betting, one of the main concerns of the bettor and the investor in general, should be the preservation of their capital. In times of negative streaks, it is wise to reduce the amount of money you are gambling, review our sports betting strategies, and readjust our forecast estimation procedures.
Yield vs. Hit Rate
There are many bettors and tipsters who publish and follow other statistics such as hit rates and the average odds they bet on. The hit rate consists of calculating the percentage of bets won out of the total number of bets made.
Obviously, this method has the problem that we can and must- be using different stakes in different bets, so we attribute the same weight in the calculation to bets with different risks.
On the other hand, the average quotas can be manipulated very easily. Let’s imagine that a tipster reports the following statistics:
- 80% successful bets
- Average fee: 2.08
A priori we will think that this bettor is a true genius. Someone who guesses 80% of their bets, when the implied probability of a 2.08 odds is less than 50%, seems like a genius who finds extraordinary value in their bets.
The beautiful appearance of these numbers can hide an unpleasant reality. Let’s look at the operations table below, in which for simplicity we have assumed the same stake in all operations:
Yield table vs. hit rate
Notice that this bettor has lost money. Why? Simply because the operation with quota 6 has distorted the calculation of the average quota.
How to identify the best tipsters
We should use the Yield criterion when evaluating our performance over time. And much more if what you want is to know how good a tipster is, if you are thinking of following one. Don’t get carried away by other more misleading statistics.
In principle, the more bets the statistics reflect, the more reliable the comparatives will be. However, to be rigorous you would have to analyze the complete history, check quotas, stakes and benefits. Only then will you have a good idea of the reliability of the tipster.
Tipster and online forecaster
A good tipster is characterized by a positive and consistent yield. Without wishing to enter into complex mathematical analyzes, it does not take the same bets to have reliable results with lower average odds than higher ones. And it is not the same to have a high average quota with great disparity in operations, as with more similar quotas. The example above shows this to us.